from great expectations to bleak assumptions

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ABC News reported this week that President Barack Obama's budget contains bleak assumptions about the continued future joblessness rate of the United States of America to which he brought so much hope a little over a year ago. Pres. Obama doesn't think the unemployment rate will return to its relatively low 2007 level (the first year of the Democratic Congress) within the next decade. It is expected to remain at the 10 percent level through 2010.

(This means the Democrats can expect a big hurt in November. Americans can handle a lot of things, but the feeling of uselessness that comes with being unemployed is not one of them. The Democrats may be about to get screwed by their own liberal rhetoric about self-esteem. But I digress.)

great expectations
All this lowering expectations and bleak forecasting inspired me to go back and dig up Pres. Obama's acceptance speech from the night of Nov. 4, 2008. It's very interesting, if not a little heartbreaking, to reread.

"If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer." -- Where are the possibilities? Where is the dream of the founders? I know way too many people whose possibilities are much fewer and farther between now than they were on Nov.4, 2008. Was this the president's dream? To have a nation filled with people who have simply given up the chance to find work because those normally in a position to employ are too gripped with fear to risk their capital?

"It's the answer that led those who've been told for so long by so many to be cynical and fearful and doubtful about what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day." -- When has there ever been a greater sense of cynicism, fear, and doubt in the United States of America than right now? Is anyone in this country really confident that he will not lose his job as a result of this recession? Is there anyone who is hopeful about where this country is going? Ask any liberal Democrat what it was that drove 52 percent of voters in Massachusetts to vote a Republican into "Ted Kennedy's seat" and I imagine you'll hear something like cynicism, fear, and doubt. Only now, it's cynicism, fear and doubt about Washington - and yes, the man who runs it.

"...above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to. It belongs to you. It belongs to you." -- Most people, I would wager, could care less about whatever victory or defeat belongs to them so long as they have a job. And it's precisely a job that does not belong to too many people these days.

"There's new energy to harness, new jobs to be created, new schools to build, and threats to meet, alliances to repair." - Finally he mentions jobs, but in what context? Right after the "new energy" - meaning so-called "green" energy - that he wants to harness. For Obama, it's not just about clearing the way so you can have the job you want, or even so you can have any job (as most people these days who don't have a job would pretty much take whatever offer they could get). It's about Obama commanding and controlling the energy market and you into the kind of job that he wants you to have.

"Let us remember that, if this financial crisis taught us anything, it's that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers." - But what have we been hearing about in the press and from the Administration itself for months now? Talk of a "jobless recovery," which is defined by what Pres. Obama described. It's downright prophetic. Stocks and economic indicators are going up, but ordinary people still don't have work. I would suggest that a "jobless recovery" is no recovery at all.

the hardest hit
It turns out that the hardest hit sectors of the economic downturn, the ones still losing jobs, have been in construction, transportation and warehousing.

Not too surprising. If I'm an investor, why would I want to risk my capital on a new building when the President of the United States is publicly supporting a bill to clamp down on emissions for stationary as well as mobile sources, and the Environmental Protection Agency has decided it wants to regulate carbon? This country thrived for years on the strength of its manufacturing sector. We built things that you can hold and sit on and use and drive around in. But these now are sacrificed to - to what? Limit our carbon output that actually turns out to be good for trees?

The average duration of unemployment has hit a new record in January. The average unemployed worker has now been unemployed for 30.2 weeks. There are over 6 million Americans who have been unemployed for over 27 weeks.

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This page contains a single entry by Mark published on February 6, 2010 3:26 PM.

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